Multinomial Selection in the Presence of Infinite Alternatives

We propose a new procedure for the multinomial selection problem to solve a real problem of any modern Air Force: the elaboration of better air-to-air tactics for Beyond Visual Range air-to-air combat that maximize its aircraft survival probability H(θ, ω), as well as enemy aircraft downing probability G(θ, ω). In this study, using a low-resolution simulator with generic parameters for the aircraft and missiles, we could increase an average success rate of 16.69% and 16.23% for H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω), respectively, to an average success rate of 76.85% and 79.30%. We can assure with low probability of being wrong that the selected tactic has greater probability of yielding greater success rates in both H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω) than any simulated tactic.     

Pathways and transitions of gamblers over two years

Moderate-risk and problem gamblers represent 1.4% and 0.4% of the Québec population, respectively. Research on gamblers’ trajectories has been hampered by methodological shortcomings leading to heterogeneous results. The present research was conducted in the Province of Québec with a representative sample of adult gamblers and aims to explore how gamblers change over time according to the severity of their gambling problems. Using a 2-year follow-up prospective design (3 waves), 179 gamblers selected from a representative survey were divided into the 4 PGSI (Problem Gambling Severity Index) categories. Beyond the decreasing trend in PGSI scores detected within the overall sample using a linear growth model, our analyses revealed that moderate-risk gamblers are heterogeneous in their composition and evolution, comprising stable moderate-risk, recent cases and former problem gamblers. Over three waves, one-third of moderate-risk gamblers improved, one-third remained stable and one-third became problem gamblers. The subgroups transitioning in and out of the moderate-risk category differed in terms of reported changes in gambling behaviours and consequences. Problem gamblers remain vulnerable over time, being at risk of experiencing chronic problems. Results highlight the necessity of subgroup-specific prevention programmes and treatment services that address both the non-linearity of risky gambling and the chronicity of problem gambling.     

Changes in risky gambling prevalence among a New Zealand population cohort

Evidence suggests that problem gambling is an unstable state where gamblers move into and out of risk over time. This article looks at longitudinal changes in risky gambling and the factors associated with an increased risk (measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) in the current New Zealand context, which has experienced a doubling of the electronic gaming machine (EGM) market over the last two decades. Respondents from a nationally representative baseline sample (n = 2672) were recontacted two years later to assess changes in gambling behaviours. Among the 901 respondents reached at follow-up, average gambling risk increased over time, and the prevalence of those who had at least some level of gambling risk (i.e. low-risk or greater) more than doubled (from 4.7% to 12.4%). The majority (80.2%) of those who were at risk at follow-up had not been at risk at baseline. Multivariate linear regression analyses show that the predictors of low to moderate increased risk include Pacific ethnicity; high neighbourhood deprivation status; baseline frequent, continuous gambler type; baseline PGSI status; and playing EGMs. These findings highlight the need to develop theories of gambling addiction trajectories and to identify the earliest point along the trajectory where public health interventions should occur.     

Establishing Laws and Policies on Parent to Child Violence in Finland 1965–1983

This study explores perceptions of parent to child violence, the arguments for imposing legal regulation, and the intended objectives of the legislative process that led to a ban in Finland in 1983. This qualitative policy analysis examines policy documents alongside expert interviews with professional on the legislative process. The example of Finland shows that a significant change in attitudes and decreased levels of violence towards children can be achieved without the threat of legal punishment, even without specific intervention policies. However, the study emphasises the importance of establishing clear practices alongside altering legislation which has been inadequate in Finland.     

社会角色理论视域下高校问题学生行为失范

高校"问题学生"行为失范已得到社会的普遍关注,基于前人研究的基础,立足客观实际,开辟新视角,将社会角色理论引入对这一问题的研究,不仅对"问题学生"和"行为失范"进行了重新界定,从角色转换、角色冲突、角色错位、角色失败四个方面分析了高校"问题学生"行为失范产生的缘由,并提出了相应的对策。     

Model selection consistency of U-statistics with convex loss and weighted lasso penalty

In the paper we consider minimisation of U-statistics with the weighted Lasso penalty and investigate their asymptotic properties in model selection and estimation. We prove that the use of appropriate weights in the penalty leads to the procedure that behaves like the oracle that knows the true model in advance, i.e. it is model selection consistent and estimates nonzero parameters with the standard rate. For the unweighted Lasso penalty, we obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for model selection consistency of estimators. The obtained results strongly based on the convexity of the loss function that is the main assumption of the paper. Our theorems can be applied to the ranking problem as well as generalised regression models. Thus, using U-statistics we can study more complex models (better describing real problems) than usually investigated linear or generalised linear models.     

高校少数民族毕业生就业问题及对策研究——以西南民族大学为例

大学生就业问题近年来成为社会各界关注的热点问题,少数民族大学毕业生的就业问题因其既具有共性,又带有特性,更应成为关注的焦点。本文基于对西南民族大学少数民族毕业生就业问题的调研,发现当前成都地区高校少数民族毕业生一定程度存在热衷大城市就业,沟通能力相对不足,从事工作与所学专业不对口,易受到不公对待等就业问题。究其原因,我们认为与少数民族大学毕业生的传统择业观、汉语水平、学校的专业设置以及用人单位的不当认识有关。为此,本文提出政府应加大对少数民族大学毕业生就业的关注程度;学校应提高少数民族大学生的综合素质;社会应创造公平公正的就业环境;少数民族大学生应提升自身能力、转变择业观念等相关对策建议。     

外国新闻史教材存在问题及对策分析

外国新闻史是新闻传播类专业本科阶段的必修课,师生共同关心教材的选用。综观目前正规出版的教材,问题不容忽视,包括翻译不规范、基本史料表述不一、史观带有浓厚的意识形态色彩等。这些问题给学生带来困惑,给教学带来困难。解决的办法首先是要重视规范,遵守约定俗成的规则,其次要改变既有思维,学会客观、理性地对待他国新闻传播史。     

An economic model for the quality selection problem

The object of an economic model for the quality selection problem is to select the best parameter value for an input quality characteristic (X) so that the quality loss incurred on an output quality characteristic (Y) is minimized. The relation function between Y and X is assumed to be known throughout the article. In the work of Taguchi's experimentations, the selection of best parameter values is solved by two-step optimization when Y is adjustable. In the article, it is further extended to the case where Y is non-adjustable. An economic quality selection model with a general relation function is proposed based on a Taylor-series method for both adjustable and non-adjustable cases. A special case of a quality selection model with a quadratic relation function is also studied. A circuit example provided by Taguchi is presented to illustrate the use of this model.     

Exact and approximate distributions for linear contrasts of means and variances

A Bayesian analysis is presented for the K-group Behrens-Fisher problem. Both exact posterior distributions and approximations were developed for both a general linear contrast of the K means and the K variances, given either proper diffuse or informative conjugate priors. The contrast of variances is a unique feature of the heterogeneous variance model that enables investigators to test specific effects of experimental manipulations on variance. Finally, important-differences were observed between the heterogeneous variance model and the homogeneous model.